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Grain Supplies Increasingly Scarce

Our graph of the month shows the development of grain production and grain consumption, worldwide, for the past 30 years. In comparison to 1982, both production and consumption have increased by approximately 50%. In general, the rising consumption was balanced by an increase in production. It is apparent, however, that years in which worldwide harvests significantly exceed demand have become increasingly rare.

 

The graph also shows a downward trend of the so-called “Stocks-to-Use”-ratio. The “Stocks-to-Use”-ratio is an indicator of the balance between supply and demand for a resource, in this case grains. The ratio is calculated on the basis of relating existing grain stocks to projected use.

A Declining “Stocks-to-Use”-ratio is Expected for 2012/2013 Harvests

For the 2012/2013 harvest season, a further decline of the “Stocks-to-Use”-ratio to below 20% is expected. Reasons of this decline are considerable crop losses for corn, caused by the most severe droughts that have hit the North American Midwest since 1956.

 

 

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